An Integrated System Dynamics Framework for Sustainability Assessment in Andean Mountain Regions: A Case Study of Quindío, Colombia

Andean mountain regions face accelerating pressures from deforestation, ecological degradation, and climate change, yet policymakers often lack integrated tools to evaluate long‑term, cross-sector sustainability strategies. This study develops and validates a system dynamics model that integrates environmental, economic, social, and institutional subsystems to assess the effectiveness of policy interventions in the Quindío Department of Colombia over 2025–2055. The framework provides a practical decision-support tool for governments by identifying high-impact leverage points, particularly reforestation policies and institutional strengthening and quantifying their effects on forest conservation, poverty reduction, carbon capture, and economic growth. Results show that Sustainable Transformation policies deliver a 6.8:1 return on investment, substantially increase forest cover and ecosystem integrity, and reduce poverty by 44.4 percentage points, demonstrating that coordinated sustainability packages generate synergistic rather than trade-off outcomes. The model’s rigorous validation, sensitivity analysis, and scenario-based outputs equip regional authorities with actionable evidence for prioritising investments, sequencing interventions, and implementing adaptive management under uncertainty. Because the framework is modular, data-driven, and grounded in global standards (IPCC, SEEA-EA, MEA), it can be readily adapted and transferred to other mountainous socio-ecological systems worldwide to support sustainability policy design.