Is governance universally ‘green’? Short- and long-run effects of institutional quality on CO ₂ emissions and intensity in Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA

This study investigates the impact of national governance frameworks on environmental performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from 2010 to 2023. Motivated by SDG 13, the COP28–COP29 agendas and evidence linking environmental outcomes to institutional maturity, this study assesses CO2 emissions and intensity to evaluate emission pressures and decarbonization performance. This analysis is pertinent because of governance reforms, climate finance implementation and ongoing emissions growth in developing regions. Utilizing a panel of 58 countries, this study employs a dynamic empirical framework that incorporates cross-sectional dependence (CSD) tests, unit root analysis and PMG-ARDL estimations to assess the effects of governance. The results indicate that governance improvements lead to significant long-term emission reductions, whereas short-term effects vary due to adjustment costs. These findings are consistent with evidence from advanced economies but differ in scale and timing, particularly for fossil-fuel-dependent MENA countries. Governance reforms have stronger environmental benefits in SSA, whereas MENA experiences weaker or delayed effects. The study illustrates that governance acts as a conditional green mechanism, contingent on institutional maturity and structural factors. Policy implications suggest implementing region-specific reforms that enhance enforcement, support the clean energy transition and align with decarbonization goals.