Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hepatitis E Virus from Shellfish Consumption Among Chinese Residents Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Shellfish are one of the important aquatic products in coastal areas. Due to their feeding mechanism, viruses can accumulate in their tissues during the feeding process. Most of the current research on HEV in shellfish is limited to the sampling of the surface layer to detect its prevalence, and traditional quantitative risk assessment methods face challenges in assessing the potential risks associated with consumption. Using the R language, we combined 2011–2024 literature detection data with experimental results to simulate infection risk for Chinese urban and rural residents under cooked and raw-consumption scenarios. Single-exposure infection probabilities were similar, but annual risks were comparable across groups. For urban residents, the 95% CrI of annual risk was 3.83 × 10−5 (2.5 × 10−6–3.56 × 10−4) (raw) and 1.2 × 10−8 (3.8 × 10−10–4.3 × 10−7) (cooked); for rural residents, the confidence interval was 2.69 × 10−5 (1.8 × 10−6–2.50 × 10−4) (raw) and 8.4 × 10−9 (2.5 × 10−10–3.0 × 10−7) (cooked). By assessing the prevalence of HEV in shellfish and the probability of infection after consumption, the safety awareness of the Chinese population regarding shellfish consumption can be strengthened. Also, suggestions can be derived from HEV prevalence data in various countries, to improve the breeding environment and reduce relevant prevalence and risks.