Genomic similarity to quantitatively evaluate the reassortment potential of H7N9 with other subtypes of avian influenza viruses

Introduction The H7N9 influenza virus poses a significant public health threat due to its potential for reassortment and cross-species transmission. This study aims to systematically evaluate the genomic similarity between H7N9 and other influenza A subtypes to identify strains with high reassortment potential and characterize their spatiotemporal and host distribution patterns. Methods We analyzed nearly 4,000 H7N9 sequences from GISAID and NCBI, alongside representative sequences of other influenza A subtypes. Open reading frames were extracted, and a genomic similarity index was constructed using Euclidean distance, dot product, and cosine similarity measures, with weights optimized via principal component analysis. The index was applied to quantify inter-subtype similarity and predict reassortment-prone strains. Results High sequence similarity was observed between H7N9 and cognate subtypes (e.g., H7N3, H15N9), with H7N3 exhibiting the highest similarity index (1.00). Validation using known reassortant strains, such as A/Yixing/805/2022 (H3N2), confirmed that strains with high reassortment potential showed significantly elevated similarity scores across all gene segments (p< 0.001). High-similarity outliers analysis identified 581 spillover events, temporally concentrated during 2014–2017, and spatially clustered in regions like the United States, Europe, and Hong Kong. Host analysis highlighted birds—especially chickens, ducks, and turkeys—as key reservoirs for reassortment. Discussion The genomic similarity index effectively identifies influenza A subtypes with high reassortment potential, supported by retrospective validation and spatiotemporal congruence with documented outbreaks. The concentration of high-similarity strains in specific hosts and regions underscores the role of ecological factors in viral evolution. These findings provide a predictive framework for monitoring emergent reassortants and inform targeted surveillance strategies.