Assessment of the effectiveness of tax incentives for media production in Russia in the context of the 2026 tax reform

Subject. This article assesses the feasibility of introducing tax incentives to stimulate media production in Russia in the context of the 2026 tax reform. Objectives. The article aims to justify a set of targeted tax incentives for the media industry based on an analysis of international practices, the current state of the sector, and the parameters of tax reform, as well as develop a methodology for predictive assessment of the effectiveness of the proposed measures. Methods. For the study, I used a comparative analysis and economic and statistical modeling with elasticity coefficients and multipliers verified in empirical studies. Results. The article justifies the parameters of tax benefits, presents the author-developed criteria of targeting, and forecasts the impact on the industry and the budget until 2030. Conclusions and Relevance. In the context of an overall increase in the tax burden, targeted preferences for the media industry can ensure a production growth of 35 percent and employment growth of 28 thousand people by 2030, provided that the criteria of targeting and control mechanisms are observed. The research results can be used by government authorities when developing measures for tax incentives for creative industries, in particular when preparing regulatory legal acts on the introduction of tax benefits for media production. The proposed methodology for predictive assessment of effectiveness can be applied to justify the parameters of tax incentives in related sectors of the creative economy. The results obtained may be of interest to specialists in the field of tax policy, cultural economics, as well as to researchers studying the mechanisms of State support for innovative industries.