The specifics of the subnational level of politics as a factor in the electoral victories of the opposition

This article analyzes the features of regional and municipal levels of Russian politics that both hinder and facilitate opposition victories in subnational elections. Among the challenges faced by the opposition are the majoritarian electoral system and the Imperiali seat-allocation method, along with its modifications, which provide electoral advantages to the ruling party; the municipal filter and the prohibition of self-nomination in gubernatorial elections; low voter turnout given the disorganization of the opposition; and the federal authorities' ability to concentrate budgetary and other resources on ongoing electoral campaigns. Conversely, certain features of subnational politics support the opposition, such as inter-elite competition, the ability to appeal to the federal center in conflicts with regional and municipal authorities, the potential to gain electoral advantages during low turnout in cases of opposition consolidation, the weakness of subnational governing bodies due to the centralist nature of public administration in Russia, fewer actual barriers to entry into politics, and the presence of particularly protest-prone regions. The positive aspects of subnational politics for the opposition outweigh the negative ones, which is one of the main reasons for its victories in many municipal and regional elections. This, in turn, makes it difficult for the opposition to transfer this experience to the federal level. The author concludes that under normal functioning of the political system in Russia, electoral victories of subnational opposition do not pose a threat to it; however, in the event of a potential weakening of the system, the successes of the opposition, due to the inspiration of the protest electorate and elite desertion, could expand both horizontally and vertically.