The Megaproject of the Central Eurasian Transport Corridor: Analysis of Effectiveness Using the Input–Output Method

Introduction. Assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of major infrastructure projects requires methods that take into account multiplier effects in the economy. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of three alternative implementation options for the Central Eurasian Transport Corridor megaproject and identify the most effective configuration. Materials and Methods. The study focused on three combinations of railway projects. A static input-output model (Leontief model) was implemented using the official input-output tables of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) for 2016. Investments were distributed across industries according to the technological structure of transport construction. Efficiency was assessed for the investment and operational phases under two freight flow scenarios (15 and 45 million tonnes). Results. Significant macroeconomic impacts were identified for all options under consideration. Megaproject III (Sabetta-Kuragino-Kyzyl-Urumqi) demonstrated the highest multiplier effect on gross domestic product after 10 years of operation (up to 3.69). The highest increase in gross output and gross domestic product during the investment phase was demonstrated by the most capital-intensive Megaproject II (Sabetta-Tashtagol-Altai). A detailed breakdown of the resulting gross added value is presented. Discussion and Conclusion. Large-scale railway projects have a significant long-term multiplier effect on the economy, providing increases in output, gross domestic product, and budget revenues. The study's results allow for ranking options based on macroeconomic efficiency and substantiate the need to consider intersectoral linkages when assessing the social significance of infrastructure megaprojects.