Spherical Fuzzy AHP and Spherical Fuzzy TOPSIS-Based Goal Programming for Forest Fire Resource Allocation of Kastamonu Province

Aim of study: The study aims to assess the risk of wildfires in Kastamonu to develop a resource allocation plan through an optimization approach for strategic resource allocation in firefighting.Area of study: The total forest area in Kastamonu was 876314 hectares. The region around the Ilgaz Mountains, which are in the inland areas away from the coastline, was found to be vulnerable to fire risk.Material and method: Four major criteria and twelve sub-criteria that affect fire occurrence were assessed using SF-AHP. The weights were shortlisted using SF-TOPSIS. After determining the fire-vulnerable regions, resource allocation was done using goal programming.Main results: Proximity to power lines was found to be the most important factor affecting the forest fire risk, with a weight of 13.5%, followed by humidity levels with a weight of 12.6%. Human factors and meteorological factors played a crucial role in determining the fire risk. The results revealed that the highest fire risk occurred in the Taşköprü district.Research highlights: This study contributed to the literature with a new approach in which fuzzy-based risk analysis and goal programming models were used for the first time.