Projecting current and future global distributions of <i>Frankliniella tenuicornis</i> (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) and its natural enemies under climate change using the MaxEnt model

Climate change profoundly alters the geographical distribution and ecological adaptability of species, posing significant challenges to the spatial dynamics of pests and their natural enemies. To assess the potential impacts of climate variability on the efficacy of biological control, this study employed the MaxEnt model to project the current and future suitable habitats of the major agricultural pest Frankliniella tenuicornis and its natural antagonists Orius insidiosus and Ceranisus menes. The findings indicated that under future climatic scenarios, the potential distribution of F. tenuicornis is likely to expand, whereas the habitats of O. insidiosus and C. menes are expected to remain relatively stable or contract. Habitat overlap analysis revealed a considerable spatial congruence between the pest and its natural enemies, highlighting their potential to regulate pest populations through ecological interactions. Furthermore, under different emission pathways, the centroid of suitable habitats for F. -tenuicornis is projected to shift markedly westward and generally towards higher latitudes, while the displacement of centroids for the two natural enemies is comparatively minor. These results provide a comprehensive evaluation of the spatial dynamics of pests and their antagonists under climate change, offering theoretical foundations for optimizing biological control strategies, implementing targeted pest management practices, and safeguarding ecosystem stability.