Appraising Forest Degradation Dynamics (1988-2018) in Umfakarin Natural Forest Reserve, Sudan, Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Imagery

Sudan, recognized as a forest degradation and deforestation hotspot, has experienced significant forest loss in recent decades. The Umfakarin Natural Forest Reserve (UNFR) is undergoing rapid forest degradation driven by increasing human land-use pressure within a conflict-affected dryland environment. This study assessed long-term land use/land cover dynamics (LULC) and mapped forest degradation in the UNFR. Landsat satellite imagery from 1988, 2002, and 2018 were analyzed using maximum-likelihood supervised classification, transition matrix analysis, and supported by GNSS field-based verification. The classification results revealed marked LULC changes over the study periods, where tree cover reached its peak in 2002 at 32.13%, compared to 19.89% in 1988 and the marked decline by 18.43% in 2018, indicating fluctuating forest conditions. Mixed vegetation increased sharply by 2018 (22.54%) relative to 1988 (16.08%) and 2002 (5.43%), while agricultural land expanded significantly in 2018 (31.96%), exceeding le