Variance Ecology — A Theory of Irreversible Possibility and Societal Selection v2.0

This paper introduces Variance Ecology as a social-scientific application layer of the VASTIS theoretical framework. VASTIS formalises the dynamics of possibility spaces under irreversible selection. Variance Ecology applies this mechanism to societal systems: institutions, cultures, technologies, and governance structures are understood as stabilised selections within a shared possibility space. The central question is not what is possible, but what is sustainably possible. We introduce the core measure V(t) = width of functionally stable alternatives and derive three structural pathologies (under-variance, over-variance, selection density) along with corresponding normative principles (variance obligation, feedback obligation, integrity). The normative principles are derived structurally, not morally. v6 update: The formal connection between time theory (TEIL LXXXII) and system dynamics (TEIL IIa) is integrated — τ(t) = α·z(t) + γ·c(t) − β·b(t) — connecting selection density and transitional intensity via the evolution equation of the possibility space. Appendix A provides operational criteria for G089 (structural stability under context shift) and G094 (tipping point detection), closing the two primary open formalizations of the framework.