Project Fear: Emotions, Game Theory, and Failed Persuasion in Ancient Greek and Contemporary Politics

This paper examines Project Fear, the use of threat-based rhetoric to influence collective decisions, by analyzing Thucydides’ Melian Dialogue and Demosthenes’ On the Liberty of the Rhodians and comparing them with Brexit (2016) and Grexit (2015), respectively, using the theoretical frameworks of cognitive theories, particularly game theory and prospect theory. Two cognitive distortions affecting kairos, rational understanding, and decision-making are identified: hope (elpis) and anger (orgē). Project Fear fails when the stronger party relies on high-intensity threat signals without recognizing that, once the weaker audience perceives its status quo as one of massive, existential loss, hope and anger act as psychological multipliers, transforming negligible possibilities into viable strategies.