Geospatial assessment of habitat degradation and climate impacts on migratory crane habitat in Pakistan’s Wetland ecosystems

Migratory cranes are ecologically significant avian species that depend on dynamic wetland ecosystems across their flyways. However, their habitats are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pressures and environmental change. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of habitat suitability for the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) and Eurasian Crane (Grus grus) in Pakistan using multi-decadal geospatial datasets and remote sensing techniques. Supervised classification of Landsat imagery revealed significant land use/land cover (LULC) changes from 1994 to 2024, including a sharp increase in built-up areas (+ 22.4%) and a notable decrease in vegetation cover (- 4.2%), indicating intensifying habitat fragmentation and ecological stress. Key vegetation and water indices NDVI, NDWI, MNDWI, and LSWI were analyzed to evaluate ecological conditions relevant to crane habitats. Annual NDVI time-series trends indicated vegetation degradation in the early 2000s, followed by recovery after 2014 due to large-scale afforestation initiatives. Surface water dynamics, derived from the Joint Research Centre Global Surface Water dataset, showed fluctuations in water occurrence, seasonality, and recurrence factors critical for crane roosting and foraging. Climatic analysis using NASA POWER data revealed rising temperatures and variable precipitation patterns, further affecting wetland health and habitat suitability. Land Surface Flow (LSF) mapping identified critical migratory flyways along the Kurram River and Lora Nala, reinforcing the ecological importance of this corridor. This research highlights the value of geospatial tools in monitoring migratory bird habitats and underscores the urgency of integrating spatial data into national conservation policies. By identifying priority conservation zones and tracking habitat change, this study offers critical insights for the sustainable management of Pakistan's wetlands and the protection of migratory crane populations along the Flyway.