Fertility in the time of depression: the impact of economic conditions on US fertility during the 1930s

Abstract Recent studies have shown that fertility was adversely impacted by the Great Recession of 2008 in both developed and developing nations. We look back further in time to explore how the Great Depression of the 1930s affected fertility rates across the United States. Our main results suggest that a one percent increase in state personal income per capita is associated with a 0.17 to 0.25 percent increase in fertility the next year, which is consistent with estimates found during the post-World War II economy in the United States. Thus, we conclude that fertility decisions were indeed pro-cyclical during the 1930s.