Russia’s Shifting Black Sea Policies: Regional and International Implications

This study examines the Black Sea region within the framework of Regional Security Complex Theory and focuses on the relational and multi-layered nature of security dynamics among actors. Drawing on the theoretical framework developed by Buzan and Wæver, the study argues that security in the Black Sea should be evaluated not only in terms of material capabilities but also on the basis of historically shaped perceptions and interactions among multiple actors. The security complex emphasizes the importance of relational dynamics among actors and highlights that these dynamics intensify at the regional level. The analysis addresses the historical development of Russia’s security policies in the Black Sea and examines how these policies have transformed over time. In particular, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Russia–Ukraine war that began in 2022 are considered as turning points that have fundamentally transformed the region’s security environment. The study reveals how these developments have reshaped regional security dynamics and their effects on the broader international context. In the study, the Black Sea is addressed as a critical geopolitical space where regional and extra-regional actors intersect, and Russia’s central position within this space, as well as its perception of the region as a vital buffer zone for its national security, are analyzed. The study places the Black Sea within a broader international framework by considering the roles of external actors such as NATO, the United States, and China. While NATO seeks to increase its deterrence capacity in the Black Sea, the United States develops strategies through its partners due to its lack of direct access to the region. China, on the other hand, attempts to expand its sphere of influence in the Black Sea, which it regards as a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative. In the Black Sea, the military, economic, and political dimensions of security relations among regional and extra-regional actors are of critical importance. Security dynamics among actors influence one another; this influence is not limited to the regional level but also has global repercussions. In the study, an analysis based on a literature review has been conducted, and various sources have been utilized in order to interpret both historical and contemporary developments.