Circular Economy and Aviation Sustainability in the European Union: A Comparative Panel Analysis (2010–2024)

Aviation remains one of the European Union’s most challenging sectors to decarbonize. The Circular Economy (CE) offers a systemic framework for reducing resource intensity and supporting sustainability transitions. Yet empirical evidence linking CE progress to aviation environmental outcomes remains scarce. This study examines 27 EU Member States between 2010 and 2024. We analyze how circularity performance, sustainability factors, and tourism-driven demand shape aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using fixed-effects panel models and causal mediation analysis, we find that CE progress enhances renewable energy adoption and resource productivity. However, CE has no direct effect on aviation emissions. Instead, tourism intensity, captured through air passenger volumes, emerges as the strongest and most consistent predictor of aviation GHG emissions. Aviation energy consumption mediates 76% of the relationship between tourism demand and aviation emissions through increased fuel use. The findings indicate a structural decoupling between macro-level CE policies and aviation emissions, highlighting the central role of energy use and demand growth in shaping aviation’s environmental impact.