Greenhouse gas emissions in the GCC: Sectoral drivers, advanced econometrics, and Saudi Arabia's circular economy solutions

This study investigates the drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates—between 2003 and 2022. Using fixed effects, random effects, and dynamic panel models, the analysis evaluates the impact of sectoral energy intensity, land use, and economic activity on emissions. To address multicollinearity among energy variables, a principal component analysis approach is employed. Results indicate that manufacturing and electricity consumption are consistently significant contributors, while forest area and agricultural land yield statistically inconsistent results depending on model structure. Crisis-period dummies yield minimal statistical impact. Robustness checks confirm the validity of core findings. The study further connects econometric results with emerging policy pathways, including industrial symbiosis initiatives in Saudi Arabia. These findings offer region-specific insights for designing circular economy strategies and enhancing emission mitigation frameworks across energy-intensive sectors in the GCC. A core methodological novelty of this study is the construction of a Sectoral Energy Intensity Index (SEI Index) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This provides a more robust and interpretable measure of industrial energy use, a limitation in prior GCC emissions studies.