Temporal analysis of reproduction distributed in space illuminates the climate‐change resiliency of toyon ( <i>Heteromeles arbutifolia</i> )

TARDIS recovers biologically realistic predictors of toyon flowering, and hindcast changes in flowering intensity indicate the species' range remains suitable after 125 years of changing climate. Overall, our results indicate toyon populations remain healthy, but may have limited opportunity to migrate northward as climate change continues.