Investigation of the impact of electric vehicle charging infrastructure on the Russian power system: feature importance analysis

THE PURPOSE . The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of key parameters of the electric vehicle (EV) fleet and electric vehicle charging infrastructure (EVCI) on electricity consumption and peak power demand in Russia's power system in the medium and long term. In contrast to existing research, the focus is not only on forecasting the number of EVs but also on a scenario-based analysis of a wide range of influencing factors. METHODS . A mathematical model was developed to calculate the electricity consumption and maximum power demand of EVCI for all Russian cities with a population exceeding 50,000. The model accounts for the regional distribution of the EV fleet, its structure and model composition, climatic conditions, EVCI specifications, and behavioral factors. The significance of the factors was assessed using multiple linear regression. RESULTS . It was found that for an EV fleet of 1 million units, the variation in influencing factors can lead to changes in EVCI electricity consumption ranging from 0.14% to 0.62%, and in peak power demand from 0.09% to 2.26% of the 2024 levels of Russia's Unified Energy System (UES). The EVCI parameters have the greatest impact on peak power demand: the number of EVs per charging station (37.1%) and the share of fast chargers (20.8%), along with the share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (23.7%). Electricity consumption is most significantly influenced by the share of plug-in hybrids (32.3%), their utilization rate (26.3%), and the share of electric buses in the fleet (21.6%). The forecast up to 2050 shows that EVCI electricity consumption could reach 8.13-11.85%, and peak power demand could reach 11.54- 16.81% of the 2024 levels.