The New South Wales Youth on Track and Recidivism: An Early Look at Outcomes for Referrals

This study evaluates the Youth on Track program, launched by the New South Wales Government in 2013 to improve outcomes and reduce recidivism among young people (aged 10–17) who are at risk of offending. Using a quasi-experimental design and Propensity Score Matching, the study compares individuals referred to Youth on Track (Oct 2016–Mar 2020, n = 1,997) with a matched group ( n = 3,994) from the Human Services DataSet, a de-identified dataset of over 7 million New South Wales service records. Analysis includes Youth on Track administrative data and survival analysis to assess outcomes. Youth on Track referrals had similar or higher engagement with services and higher probabilities of adverse outcomes such as reoffending, custody placement, risk of significant harm reports, out-of-home care placement, homelessness support, and mental health service use. Although the findings suggest that Youth on Track referrals did not achieve better outcomes compared to the matched control group, they are prone to detection bias due to factors such as increased supervision and unmeasured traits like peer/sibling involvement in crime or motivation to stop offending. Thus, results should not guide decision-making without further research. Despite limitations, the study highlights the value of rigorous quasi-experimental methods and Human Services DataSet in evaluating complex interventions and informing future program assessments.