A Two-Step Framework for Mapping, Classification, and Area Estimation of Stand- and Non-Stand-Replacing Forest Disturbances

In recent decades, forest disturbances have increased in both frequency and intensity, driven by global warming and urbanization. Remote sensing, together with forest disturbance algorithms, offers broad opportunities for forest disturbance monitoring due to its high temporal and spatial resolution. However, operational methods capable of predicting and classifying disturbances while providing official area estimates suitable for national statistics remain scarce. The Three Indices Three Dimensions (3I3D) algorithm has proven effective in identifying forest changes and providing area estimates in Mediterranean ecosystems using Sentinel-2 imagery. Yet, while suitable for change detection, it does not distinguish among disturbance types. Here, we propose a two-step framework for forest disturbance detection and classification, tested in inland Spain for 2018. First, a binary forest change map is produced through an enhanced version of the 3I3D approach. This step incorporates Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to calibrate the algorithm through data-driven threshold selection, allowing adaptation to specific regional conditions. Second, detected changes are classified into four disturbance types: wildfire, clear-cut, thinning, and non-stand replacing disturbance, using Sentinel-2 spectral bands, 3I3D-derived metrics, and geometric descriptors of disturbance patches. Three machine-learning classifiers were compared: Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Neural Network. The detection step reached an overall accuracy of 82%, estimating that 1.43% of Spanish forests (264,900 ha) were disturbed in 2018. In the classification step, Random Forest achieved the best performance, with an overall accuracy of 72%. Of the detected disturbed area, 69% corresponded to non-stand replacing disturbances, while the remaining area was classified as thinnings (19%), wildfires (26%), and clear-cuts (55%). By integrating freely available Sentinel-2 imagery, remote sensing algorithms, and photo-interpreted reference datasets, this study provides a scalable and operational approach capable of producing annual disturbance maps that combine both detection and classification of high- and low-intensity disturbances, supporting official national-scale estimates of forest disturbance areas.