Land use and land cover dynamics and its implications for agrifood systems among smallholder farmers in central Malawi

Introduction In central Malawi, the conversion of forests and grazing land into cropland and settlements is increasingly shaping the limits of smallholder production and household food security. This study assessed the effects of land use and land cover change on maize productivity, household dietary diversity, and food insecurity among smallholder farmers surrounding Lilongwe City. Methods The study integrated multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2004, 2014, and 2024) with cross-sectional household survey data collected from 279 households in Mpingu and Malingunde Extension Planning Areas. Land use change was quantified using proportional changes in key land cover classes, alongside household-level exposure indicators capturing forest loss and grazing land loss in the surrounding landscape. Results Cropland expanded by more than 450% between 2004 and 2024, while forest and grazing land declined by up to 70%, coinciding with a 61% reduction in average household farm size. Econometric analysis shows that forest loss exposure significantly reduces dietary diversity and increases the likelihood of moderate-to-severe food insecurity by 63% for each 10-percentage point increase. Grazing land loss is associated with livestock decline and reduced manure availability, contributing to lower maize yields and increasing soil fertility constraints. Dietary diversity emerged as the strongest protective factor, reducing the probability of food insecurity by 42% per additional food group consumed. Discussion The findings demonstrate that peri-urban land conversion creates interacting land-livestock-soil-nutrition feedbacks that undermine agrifood resilience in land-scarce smallholder systems. Policy responses should integrate land governance, protection of forest and grazing resources, nutrition-sensitive agricultural diversification, and peri-urban planning to reduce the risk of persistent food insecurity in low-income agrarian economies.