Circular Refugee Migration: Understanding Protracted Displacement Beyond a Refugee-Returnee Binary

What explains patterns of circular migration during protracted refugee displacement? We examine circular refugee migration (CRM) between Syria and Lebanon, focusing on why refugees undertake trips to their home country and how they navigate them. We draw on in-depth interviews and focus groups with Syrian refugees in Lebanon, bus and taxi drivers working between Lebanon and Syria, UNHCR border monitoring staff, and Syrian community leaders. We show that without consideration and measurement of CRM, research risks misinterpreting refugee movements. We offer an analytical framework for describing and interpreting refugee trips back to their home country, grounded in understanding people's capabilities and constraints. The findings suggest that CRM is a high-stakes survival strategy that people are compelled to rely on during protracted displacement, with three key empirical regularities. First, refugees traveling between the host country and home country face considerable risks, including forced conscription, arrest, and violence on smuggling routes. Second, CRM is usually driven by urgent needs related to healthcare, documentation, and family. Third, CRM often reveals a disconnect between intentions and outcomes due to worse-than-expected conditions—planned circular migration may result in unplanned return, and planned return may end in unplanned circular migration.