Search for a command to run...
Wildfires represent an increasing environmental challenge in many regions of the world due to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic pressures on natural ecosystems. Understanding the drivers of wildfire occurrence is essential for improving prevention strategies and environmental management. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fires in Ecuador between 2010 and 2025 using geospatial analysis and statistical modeling approaches. Wildfire occurrence data were obtained from official governmental records, while climatic and demographic variables were derived from NASA’s POWER Data platform and national census data. A province–month panel dataset comprising 4,608 observations was constructed to evaluate wildfire dynamics across the 24 provinces of Ecuador. Spatial analysis was conducted using Geographic Information Systems, while statistical relationships were examined through correlation analysis and generalized linear models, including Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions. Additionally, wildfire severity was evaluated using a multiple linear regression model, where burned area was considered the dependent variable. The results reveal clear spatial, temporal, and seasonal patterns of wildfire activity, with higher wildfire frequencies concentrated in the Andean and coastal regions and during the dry season months between July and October. Statistical analyses indicate that maximum temperature alone does not appear to significantly explain wildfire occurrence patterns, whereas population density shows a stronger positive association with wildfire frequency. These findings suggest that anthropogenic pressure may play a more important role than climatic variability in shaping wildfire dynamics in Ecuador. Overall, the study provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal characterization of wildfire activity and highlights the importance of integrating socio-environmental factors into wildfire risk management and prevention strategies.