CNN-BiLSTM-CA Model with Visualized Bayesian Optimization for Structural Vibration Prediction During Flood Discharge

Accurate prediction of vibration responses in hydraulic structures during flood discharge is essential for ensuring safe and stable operation. This study develops a hybrid deep learning model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), and a Channel Attention (CA) mechanism, optimized through Bayesian Optimization (BO), to predict dam gantry crane beam displacements. Time-lagged Pearson correlation and Maximum Information Coefficient (MIC) are applied to select the informative input features. The CNN-BiLSTM-CA model captures both spatial patterns and temporal dependencies in vibration signals. BO tunes model hyperparameters, while Partial Dependence (PD) analysis provides insight into how these parameters affect prediction accuracy. The model is validated using vibration data from an arch dam in Southwest China during flood discharge. Results show that CNN parameters have a greater impact on prediction accuracy than BiLSTM parameters, underscoring the importance of spatial feature extraction. Ablation studies confirm each component’s contribution. Compared with existing methods, the proposed model achieves superior accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.49, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.34, and correlation coefficient (R) of 99.42%. This framework provides a reliable and interpretable tool for predicting structural vibrations in hydraulic engineering under complex discharge conditions.