Long-Term Population Dynamics Following Innovations in Food Production

Abstract Researchers often posit that innovations in the production of food impact the long-term carrying capacity of human populations. Yet, this proposition has rarely been evaluated by a systematic comparison of different innovations in food production and population dynamics over deep-time. To fill this knowledge gap, we use an Ideal Specialization Model (ISM) to explain how innovations in networks of technology may drive different patterns of population expansion. A comparison of 33 deep-time archaeological records from across the world suggests that internal innovations in the production of food lead to more incremental demographic transitions and more frequent Malthusian periods. In contrast, external innovations in food production lead to larger demographic transitions and fewer Malthusian periods. These results document a similarity between human population dynamics during the spread of industrialization and the evolution of food production. Our work contributes to understanding the feedback between population growth and innovation processes that humans faced in the past and will face in the future.