Simulating competition in the US bioeconomy to produce hard‐to‐electrify transportation fuels using limited biomass resources

Abstract This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno‐economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost‐optimized scenarios, while low‐carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas‐minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard‐to‐electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.