Projecting Future Land Use Distributions to Enhance Ecosystem Service Value: A Dyna-CLUE Modeling Approach

Land use change is the most direct factor driving the supply and alteration of ecosystem services. This study employed the Dyna-CLUE tool to simulate future land use distributions under two scenarios—the Constrained Trend (CT) and Optimized Target-driven (OT) scenarios—based on land use data from 2010. Subsequently, their corresponding ecosystem service values (ESVs) were calculated, with the simulation outcomes revealing distinct land use layouts under each scenario. Under the CT scenario, grassland and urban areas expanded, whereas farmland and water bodies declined, reflecting a trend of urbanization at the expense of rural landscapes. In contrast, the OT scenario demonstrated a cessation of built-up land expansion, accompanied by marked increases in forest and water coverage, changes that facilitated the restoration of coastal watersheds, enhancing wetland provision and improving overall ESV. Consequently, per capita ESV increased substantially—from 1751 CNY in 2018 to 2356 CNY, matching the 2010 level—primarily due to the conversion of grasslands and farmlands into forests and wetlands. The OT scenario also improved the spatial distribution of ESVs, forming interconnected ecological zones around urban areas. The results underscore that policies restraining built-up expansion, promoting afforestation, and restoring wetlands can significantly improve ecosystem services and contribute to sustainability.