Enhancing CHP plant economic efficiency in the balancing market through forecasting technical and economic indicators

RELEVANCE of this study stems from the growing demands on the economic efficiency of thermal power plants (TPPs) operating in the balancing electricity market. Modern market mechanisms require high flexibility and precision in generation management, making prompt forecasting of the plant’s technical and economic indicators critically important. THE PURPOSE . To develop a methodology for increasing the efficiency of CHP operation in a balancing electricity market by forecasting technical and economic indicators. METHODS . We developed the algorithm by conducting a comprehensive analysis of long‑term operational data and applying the analogy method while accounting for equipment physical wear. This approach ensures high forecast accuracy – up to 0,53% – which significantly outperforms standard methods. RESULTS . The practical implementation of our solution demonstrates a substantial reduction in financial losses: by 46-54% during night hours, when demand is minimal and electricity prices drop; by 29,2% when the plant operates at its technical minimum, constrained by stability and efficiency requirements. The annual economic benefit from applying this method reaches 109.1 million rubles. CONCLUSION . We designed the research results for integration into systems that: manage TPP operating modes in real time; generate optimal price bids in the balancing market. This approach not only enhances the plant’s competitiveness but also promotes more efficient use of available resources. These benefits are particularly valuable under conditions of restricted new investments and the pressing need to improve energy efficiency.