Does multidimensional distance impede or promote inbound tourism to island destinations? Evidence from Hainan Island, China

Abstract Distance is crucial to inbound tourism for islands that depend heavily on external connectivity. While the concept of distance has expanded into a multidimensional construct, its complex dynamic effects across multiple dimensions remain underexplored, particularly in island contexts. This study investigates how multidimensional distance influences inbound tourism volume (ITV) to Hainan Island, China. We innovatively integrate the cultural, administrative, geographic, and economic distance framework with the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag model. Using panel data from 22 countries covering 2008–2023, we estimate short-run dynamics and long-run effects. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity: Cultural distance exerts a significant positive long-run effect, indicating cultural novelty attracts international tourists. Conversely, economic, administrative, and geographic distances show significant inhibitory effects, reflecting persistent market, institutional, and spatial barriers. Short-run effects broadly mirror long-run dynamics, with ITV showing path dependence. This study introduces an integrated framework for island tourism research and provides a policy matrix for destination management.