A modern view on the problem of predicting bronchial asthma in children

Objective : to develop a method for predicting the severe course of bronchial asthma (BA) in children. Materials and methods : to achieve this goal, a one-time single-center prospective comprehensive examination of 125 children diagnosed with asthma was organized. The clinical stage of the study included the collection of anamnestic data, questionnaires, physical examination, functional examination, evaluation of the results of laboratory and instrumental studies. Statistical analysis was performed using the programs "STATISTICA 12.0" and MedCalc 23.2.1 (Software, USA). Results : the analysis revealed the presence of a nonlinear relationship between the risk of more severe asthma and parameters such as the duration of the disease in years, the number of exacerbations over the current 12 months, in points: 1 point — 1–2 times a year, 2 points — 3–4 times a year, 3 points — 5 times a year or more; values of peak exhalation rate in % and concentration of connexin 43 in blood serum, in ng/ml. To more effectively predict the severe course of asthma in children using ROC analysis, we have developed a clinical and laboratory model that comprehensively covers these parameters. And for the automated calculation of the individual coefficient of prediction of severe asthma, a computer program has been developed to automatically calculate the risk of developing a severe course of the disease. Conclusion : the use of a model for predicting the severity of ASTHMA in clinical practice will allow predicting the further course of the disease in children with a high degree of reliability.