Assessing the adaptive capacity to climate change using fuzzy logic-based approaches: the case of Sardinian agriculture

Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region are noteworthy hotspots for climate change impacts. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the adaptability of agriculture on the Italian island of Sardinia to the challenges of climate change. The main objective was to identify and quantify the components determining the adaptive capacity of Sardinian agriculture to climate with the aim of understanding and improving the resilience of an administrative region to the expected climate change impacts. Using a fuzzy-set analysis informed by a multidimensional weighted matrix of indicators set up with stakeholders, this study examines various determinants across socio-economic factors, governance structures, technological innovation and physical infrastructure, categorised into three components: Ability, Action and Awareness, leading to an overall Adaptive Capacity Index (best, 0≤ACI≤1, worst). The analysis reveals a moderate overall adaptive capacity (ACI = 0.57), identifying strengths and areas for improvement. In particular, the study highlights critical areas for improving Sardinian agriculture sector, emphasising the importance of strengthening knowledge and education within the agricultural community, improving collaboration among different actors to support innovation propensity and economic capacity, simplifying bureaucratic processes, and enhancing water infrastructure, all of which contribute to strengthening governance in the sector. These findings provide valuable insights for stakeholders, including policymakers and farmers, to facilitate the development and implementation of key adaptation strategies necessary for the long-term sustainability and resilience of Sardinian agriculture.