Regional aspects and dynamics of fire-caused death, injury, rescue, and evacuation rates among the population of Russia (2015–2024)

Relevance. Over the 2015 to 2024 decade, Russia registered 4,268,200 fire emergencies, causing 82,300 deaths, 91,100 injuries, and 380,900 rescued victims. According to the CTIF World Fire Statistics, Russia is a country where fires yield a largescale social impact. Our aim is to analyze the fire statistics for death, injury, rescue and evacuation rates from 2015 to 2024 in urban and rural areas of Russia. We assume, that improved prevention should reduce the medical and social burden of fires. Methods. The statistics on medical and biological consequences of fires across Russian regions were obtained from the Federal Databank for Fires (FBD ‘Fires’). From 2015 to 2018, all fires and their consequences occurred in Russia, including minor fire outbreaks were retrospectively registered. Population data per Russian region were sourced from annual statistical reports by Rosstat. The obtained statistics was analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2007 spreadsheets and Statistica 12.0 software. Trends were examined using time series analysis and a second-order polynomial model. Medical and biological consequences of fires underwent quantitative and qualitative assessment. Death, injury, rescue, and evacuation rates were calculated per 100,000 population of Russia or per 10,000 population of individual regions. Results and discussion. The average annual fire death rate (2015–2024) per 100,000 Russian population (representing the individual death risk in Russia) was 5.62 × 10–5. In ubrban areas the rate was 3.75 × 10–5 and nearly 3 times higher, reaching 11.14 × 10–5 (p < 0.001) in rural areas. The average annual fire injury rate was 6.22 × 10–5. This included 5.52 × 10–5 in urban areas, whereas rural areas showed a 1.5 times higher value of 8.27 × 10–5 (p < 0.001). The individual fire rescue probability for Russia was 26.0 × 10–5. Urban areas yielded a 1.7 times higher result than rural areas, with 28.9 × 10–5 and 17.4 × 10–5, respectively (p = 0.005). The individual fire evacuation probability for Russia was 106.7 × 10–5. In urban areas, the value was 3.4 times higher than in rural areas, with 129.9 × 10–5 and 38.4 × 10–5, respectively (p < 0.001). A downward trend was observed for fire death, injury, rescue, and evacuation rates in Russia. Quantitative and qualitative values for medical and social consequences of fires across Russian regions, including urban and rural areas, are presented in tables and infographics. Conclusion. The obtained results allow provide ground for further measures aimed at minimizing the fire causes and contingencies leading to medical and social consequences in urban and rural areas of Russia.