Research on the Dynamic Forecast of Plug-in Hybrid Passenger Vehicle Market Sales Based on Multi-model Integrated Learning

The rapid development of the plug-in hybrid passenger car market has given rise to the demand for accurate sales forecasting. By constructing a multi-model integrated learning forecasting framework, SARIMA, LSTM, Prophet and XGBoost models are selected for integrated forecasting by combining sales and penetration data from 2021-2024. The experimental results show that the annual prediction error of the integrated model is 5.92%, which is significantly better than the 7.83%-9.37% of the single model. the validated prediction error in the first quarter of 2025 is less than 2.3%, confirming the practical value of the model. The forecast results show that the plug-in hybrid market penetration will reach 22%-24% in 2025, and annual sales are expected to reach 5.8-6.2 million units.