Resilience of Electricity Transition Strategies in Israel Under Deep Uncertainty

Electricity systems increasingly operate under deep uncertainty driven by geopolitical risk, volatile fuel markets, trade fragmentation, security threats, and technological change. Under such conditions, cost-optimal planning based on assumed trajectories may lead to fragile outcomes, particularly for small and geopolitically exposed systems such as Israel’s. This paper assesses the resilience of alternative electricity transition strategies for Israel using a qualitative robustness framework inspired by Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty and scenario-based energy security analysis. Six policy-relevant strategies are evaluated across structurally distinct stress scenarios. Resilience is assessed along three dimensions: security of supply, dependency exposure, and economic vulnerability, using anchored qualitative scoring and dominance rules. The results indicate that gas-centric strategies exhibit limited robustness, while strategies combining solar deployment with adaptive gas management, smart grids, microgrids, and domestic clean-technology capabilities achieve higher resilience across a wide range of futures. The paper contributes a structured qualitative approach to resilience assessment and offers policy-relevant insights for electricity transitions under deep uncertainty.