Internal Displacement, Urbanization Pressure, and Sustainable Development Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) Performance in Africa

ABSTRACT Africa's rapidly changing urban landscape is increasingly shaped by rising internal displacement, accelerating urbanization, and uneven institutional capacity. This study investigates how these forces jointly influence Sustainable Development Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 11) performance using a comprehensive panel of 47 African countries between 2006 and 2022, determined by data availability on displacement, urbanization, governance, and key socioeconomic indicators. Employing a robust hybrid estimation approach that combines the Cross‐Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS‐ARDL) model with the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, the analysis captures both dynamic adjustments and heterogeneous long‐run effects across countries. The findings reveal that internal displacement exerts a significant and adverse long‐run impact on SDG 11 performance, highlighting the structural pressures that forced population movements impose on urban systems, infrastructure, and service delivery. Mediation analysis shows that internal displacement increases urbanization pressure, which—when supported by effective governance—can enhance progress toward sustainable and resilient cities. Moreover, moderation results demonstrate that governance quality substantially reduces the negative effect of displacement, emphasizing the critical role of planning capacity, regulatory effectiveness, and institutional coordination. These results remain robust across CCEMG estimates, confirming their stability across diverse African contexts. Overall, the study concludes that although internal displacement poses serious risks to sustainable urban development, strong governance and well‐managed urbanization can transform demographic shocks into opportunities for inclusive, resilient, and sustainable African cities. The study recommends integrating displacement considerations into urban planning frameworks, strengthening institutions, and investing in urban resilience to accelerate progress toward SDG 11.