A COMPOSITE INDEX OF GREEN ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC: STATISTICAL MODELING AND EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

The Russian Arctic is characterized by a unique combination of extreme climatic parameters, vulnerable ecosystems, and intensified economic activity, necessitating a transition to a sustainable development model. Unique challenges, such as accelerating global warming, high dependence on diesel fuel, isolated settlements, and fragile ecosystems, require a transition to a resilient development model adapted to extreme conditions. However, both academic research and managerial practice lack a tool for assessing the level of green economy development that adequately reflects the specific characteristics of the region. The aim of this study is to develop and validate an original composite model for quantitatively assessing green economy development in the Russian Arctic. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of the first comprehensive, Arctic-specific indicator system based on five key dimensions: energy independence, circularity, low-carbon transport, sustainable nature management, and social sustainability with the participation of indigenous peoples. In addition, the weighting of indicators is justified using a theoretical hierarchy of needs in extreme environments rather than conventional expert-based weighting approaches. The model was applied to six Arctic regions over the period 2018–2023 and demonstrated high internal consistency. The results demonstrate a steady but uneven increase in the level of green development. Leading regions demonstrate significant progress due to targeted investments in energy and logistics, while lagging regions retain structural constraints. Forecasts to 2035 suggest a convergence in development levels; however, targeted policy support for the most vulnerable territories remains essential. The proposed model provides a tool for monitoring, comparative analysis, and forecasting, capable of transforming declarative public policy goals into measurable and manageable indicators of sustainable development in the Arctic.