The influence of average pavement temperature on road traffic fatalities in the United States

<ns3:p>This study examines the influence of average surface temperature as a key weather-related variable on road traffic fatalities in the United States over the period 1992–2023. Using monthly data on fatalities, death rates per 100 million vehicle miles, vehicle miles travelled, and average surface temperature, statistical analyses were conducted to quantify seasonal and temperature-related effects. Over the 32-year period, the average monthly fatalities were 3,566, with a mean death rate of 1.46 per 100 million vehicle miles. Winter months (December–February) exhibited lower temperatures (mean −1.6 C) and lower travel volumes (mean 231 billion vehicle miles), but a higher average death rate of 1.46, while summer months (June–August) had higher temperatures (mean 21.3 C) and higher travel volumes (mean 276 billion vehicle miles) with a slightly lower average death rate of 1.44, despite higher total fatalities. Correlation analysis indicates a moderate negative relationship (r ≈ −0.46) between temperature and death rate, suggesting that colder conditions are associated with higher fatality risk per mile travelled. Seasonal analysis confirms pronounced peaks in fatalities during winter and early spring months. These findings highlight the role of temperature as a single weather-related factor, rather than weather conditions in general. The study does not account for other meteorological variables such as precipitation, snowfall, or visibility, which may also significantly influence road safety outcomes.</ns3:p>