RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC, THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST, AND CHINA AS A BASIS FOR AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY

Western sanctions have significantly complicated Russia’s economic activity and international cooperation in the Arctic and the Far East, creating challenges for transportation infrastructure, financial flows, and technological support. Under these conditions, the policy of a “pivot to the East” and the Belt and Road Initiative have gained strategic importance as drivers of integration and the expansion of trade and economic ties with China and other Asian countries. The proximity of the Arctic and Far Eastern macroregions to the Northern Sea Route increases their geopolitical importance and underscores the need for evidence-based recommendations for a regional international trade strategy, particularly in the context of establishing coordinated governance and development institutions. Identifying strategic priorities for a new adaptation strategy requires an examination of past experience in international trade. This article presents the results of a retrospective analysis of the structure and dynamics of international trade between the Russian Arctic, the Russian Far East, and China as partners. The novelty of the study lies in assessing the trade complementarity index at the macroregional level to determine the degree of complementarity of the commodity structures of the Arctic and Eastern macroregions and the Chinese market, as well as to evaluate the synergistic effects of their integration. The findings indicate that until 2022, the Arctic macroregion exhibited moderate export complementarity and high import complementarity with China, although import indicators showed a gradual decline. By contrast, the Far Eastern macroregion demonstrated stable import complementarity alongside a recovery in export potential. The analysis also identifies persistent synergistic effects arising from the integration of the two macroregions, contributing to more efficient trade relations and reduced volatility in international trade indicators. Commodity-level analysis demonstrates the raw-material orientation of exports and technological dependence on imports. The retrospective analysis reveals trends that provide a basis for quantitatively assessing subsequent structural changes and for developing an adaptation strategy for the international trade policy of these macroregions.