NET MIGRATION IN UKRAINE: TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Migration has become a critical demographic and socio-economic issue for Ukraine, particularly in the context of large-scale displacement caused by the ongoing war. The objective of the study is to analyze and forecast net migration in order to provide an empirical basis for migration policy development and evidence-based government decision-making in Ukraine.The paper analyzes annual net migration in Ukraine over the period 1960–2025 and produces a three-year forecast for 2026–2028. The analysis is based on annual net migration data obtained from the World Bank database. The empirical analysis employs an ARIMA time-series framework estimated in Stata software. According to the results, the negative 1960–2025 cumulative net-migration balance for Ukraine indicates population loss, caused by episodic shocks, primarily the 2022 full-scale invasion. Instead сonditional dynamic forecasts suggest positive net migration of approximately 0.84–0.99 million persons annually in 2026–2028, assuming that the estimated post-2022 structural shift persists. At the same time, relatively wide prediction intervals reflect the substantial uncertainty associated with forecasting migration after a major structural shock in 2022, which represents the largest disruption in the series. As a result, the generated forecasts provide a scenario-based empirical reference that may support migration policy planning in Ukraine. Policy makers should treat the forecasts as conditional and update plans continuously, as realized outcomes will depend on security, reconstruction, and reintegration efforts.The study contributes to the existing literature by combining long-term historical net migration data analysis with relevant time-series forecasting techniques to assess potential migration trends in Ukraine, thereby advancing the broader discussion on migration processes in conflict-affected countries.