Impacts of land use/land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Dinki Watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia

This study examined land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Dinki watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia, and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) across three time periods (1994, 2014, 2023). Multi temporal satellite imagery was classified to detect changes, complemented by community perspectives gathered through interviews and focus group discussions. Ecosystem service values were sourced from global databases and adjusted for the Ethiopian highlands using biome-specific coefficients, cross-checked with local experts and community input. Six LULC categories were identified: cropland, built up areas, dense forest, grazing land, sparse vegetation/ slight vegetation, and water bodies from the total area of 160.91 km2. Classification accuracy improved from 86.1% (1994) to 91.67% (2014) and 94.4% (2023), with strong agreement indicated by Kappa values of 0.83, 0.90, and 0.93. The LULC analysis showed notable changes across the watershed, where increases in water bodies and sparse vegetation contributed to overall ecosystem service value (ESV) gains. These changes significantly influenced ESVs, with water bodies and sparse vegetation driving the net increase. Consequently, total ESVs rose from US$200.32 thousand per year in 1994 to US$310.33 thousand per year in 2023, despite losses from cropland and forest ecosystems. Regulating services contributed the largest share, followed by provisioning, supporting, and cultural services. The findings demonstrate that LULC dynamics simultaneously enhance and undermine ecosystem functions. Integrated watershed management combining sustainable agriculture, reforestation, livelihood diversification, and community participation will be essential to balance ecological integrity with socioeconomic development in the Dinki watershed.