Long‐Term Impacts of Canada's Two‐Step Immigration Selection in Metropolitan Areas

ABSTRACT This study assesses how Canada's two‐step immigration selection process, from non‐permanent to permanent residency, impacts population distribution across Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). We use a demographic approach incorporating fertility, mortality, international migration and inter‐regional mobility to produce sub‐provincial population projections based on scenarios of future immigrants transitioning from non‐permanent to permanent residency. The results suggest that increasing the share of permanent residents selected from the existing pool of temporary residents decreases overall population levels due to fewer new arrivals from abroad, while encouraging settlement in traditional gateway CMAs of Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. Even with the higher selection rate, Canada will continue to experience aging in traditional and non‐traditional gateway CMAs, and working‐age and young immigrants will continue to choose to settle in those traditional CMAs.