Evaluating the Influence of Disinformation Narratives on a Divisive Election Campaign

Despite extensive research on disinformation, its societal impact remains uncertain. Previous studies have primarily focused on the spread of disinformation, especially on platforms like Twitter, or on how exposure influences attitudes. Additionally, research has examined disinformation's effect on voting behaviour during major electoral events. Our research contributes to ongoing debates about the spread and impact of disinformation by adopting a narrative-based approach, allowing us to examine how disinformation narratives, rather than isolated pieces of content, permeate public opinion during the 2021 Catalan elections, held amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Collaborating with a leading fact-checking organization, we identified key disinformation narratives and conducted a survey (N = 1650) to evaluate their impact. Findings reveal that the spread of disinformation during the 2021 Catalan elections was significant, with most narratives reaching over 50% of respondents. However, the impact on belief was lower, with only a few narratives being trusted by a substantial portion of the public. The study also highlights that prior exposure to disinformation increases the likelihood of believing it, aligning with previous experimental research. While ideological orientation influences belief in disinformation, it is less critical than prior exposure, and its effect varies depending on the narrative’s topic. Our results underscore the need for future research to explore the “repetition effect” and the role of different media formats in amplifying disinformation, as well as to consider societal factors like age and gender in understanding trust in disinformation.