Training for the unexpected: Enhancing driver preparedness through hazard awareness. A 15-year cohort study

• This is the first cohort study on long-term effects of simulator-based hazard training on novice driver performance and safety. • Hazard awareness simulator training improved simulated and supervised driving, but effects did not persist after licensing. • Error-based training on viewing procedures and virtual crash scenarios was essential for achieving the positive effect. • Involvement in a real crash did not improve driving behaviour. • Personal characteristics showed stronger and more persistent associations with driver performance than training did. This cohort study investigates the long-term effects of simulator-based hazard awareness training (HAT) on learner and novice drivers in the Netherlands, using a dataset of 2,372 participants over a 15-year period. Most prior studies on HAT have measured only immediate post-training outcomes; no longitudinal cohort study with a control group has previously examined both supervised and unsupervised driving outcomes over a multi-year horizon. Although the HAT and control groups showed small but statistically significant differences in gender composition, education level, and fear of driving at the start of training, the effect sizes were negligible (d ≤ 0.09), and these characteristics are addressed as covariates in the analyses. HAT improved performance during simulator training and supervised driving: HAT students’ viewing skills were better during the intersection test, required fewer on-road training hours, passed the driving exam in fewer attempts, and achieved a higher first-attempt pass rate than the control group. These benefits did not persist into unsupervised post-licensing driving. Violations, errors, and accident involvement were comparable between HAT and control group drivers in the first and last year after licensing. Personal characteristics — including gender, licensing age, self-assessed driving competence, and subjective driving difficulty — were stronger and more lasting predictors of post-licensing behaviour than training type. These findings suggest that hazard awareness is a trainable skill, but that training effects on risk-taking behaviour are moderated by individual characteristics that emerge most clearly once drivers operate independently, aligning with findings of a previous study on the same dataset. Teaching higher safety margins during supervised driving may offer a more durable route to reducing accident risk for novice drivers than higher-order skill training alone.