THE EFFECT OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY ON THE OCCURRENCE OF SEASONAL DISASTER EVENTS IN PARTS OF GUINEA SAVANNAH BELT, NIGERIA

This study investigates thunderstorm variability and its implications for disaster occurrences (floods and windstorms) in Yola, Nigeria, from 1982 to 2022, using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average trend analysis, regression models, and Pearson correlations. The results revealed high inter-annual variability without consistent long-term trends, with Yola showing peaks in 1989 and 2015 driven by urbanization and low elevation (190–252 m) near the Benue River. There is a noticeable predominant weak category T-1 thunderstorms which caused minimal routine damage, but episodic peaks heightened flood risks. Regression models for Yola’s strong correlation between disaster frequency and lives lost (r = 0.843, p = 0.004) underscored frequency-driven fatalities. Mitigation strategies (66.7% relocation/early warnings) were reliable (Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.81) but underutilized proactive measures like drainage maintenance. Findings suggest episodic disasters, necessitating robust real-time monitoring and urban planning reforms to mitigate risks, especially amid 2025 flood impacts.