Production and Export Performance of Afghan Saffron over the Past Decade

Saffron (Crocus sativus L.), widely known as “red gold,” is one of the most valuable agricultural commodities and plays a significant role in rural livelihoods, export earnings, and economic diversification in Afghanistan. The study examined the production and export performance of Afghan saffron, using secondary data on area, production, productivity, and exports from 2014–15 to 2023–24. To evaluate trends in production and exports, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods were employed. The coefficient of variation (CV) and the Cuddy–Della Valle (CDV) instability index were used to assess instability. Additionally, Markov Chain Analysis was applied to examine trade direction. The results indicated that the cultivated area, production, and export value of Afghan saffron increased significantly at annual growth rates of 29.07, 22.59, and 23.78 per cent, respectively. In contrast, productivity declined at an annual rate of -5.02 per cent, which was statistically non-significant. These findings suggest that production growth was driven primarily by quantitative expansion, with no significant improvement in production efficiency. The highest fluctuation was observed in productivity, followed by area, production, and export value. Saudi Arabia was recognized as the most stable market for Afghan saffron, followed by India. Ultimately, the results underscore the importance of focusing on increasing productivity, enhancing quality, and expanding export markets to achieve sustainable growth.