D1.4A: Democratic Expectations and Democratic Satisfaction: Generational Differences and Legitimacy Gaps in Europe

Why are some citizens satisfied with democracy while others are not? The reasons are multiple and categorically different, ranging from their satisfaction in life, job, family incomes and the environment they live in, to the assessment of economic performance of the country they live in, to their public experiences with institutions, and the level of trust in them. This article approaches the issue from a different perspective, an “internal”, or if you will, a slightly more “endogenous” one. It argues that satisfaction with democracy depends not only on detailed aspects of evaluations with democratic performance but also on whether democracy meets citizens’ normative expectations regarding what democracy should be, what are the constitutive components of democracy. Using data from the European Social Survey democracy modules (2012 and 2022), the study examines how these normative expectations, performance evaluations, and expectation–performance gaps across multiple democratic dimensions shape satisfaction with democracy across European regions and age groups. The results show that larger expectation–performance gaps consistently reduce satisfaction with democracy across democratic aspects and dimensions. While positive performance evaluations remain the strongest predictor of democratic satisfaction, normative expectations exert a conditional effect: expectations increase satisfaction when democratic performance is perceived as strong but reduce satisfaction when performance falls short. The findings also reveal significant generational differences. Younger Europeans place greater emphasis on minority rights and redistributive outcomes, whereas older citizens’ satisfaction depends more strongly on institutional guarantees such as elections and rule of law. Finally, the importance of unmet social-democratic expectations appears to have been particularly pronounced in the aftermath of the Great Recession, especially in Southern Europe and among younger cohorts.