Assessing future use of autonomous, shared and electric vehicle technologies to meet decarbonisation goals: a case study in Lisbon

Abstract Decarbonisation policy goals are expected to drive significant changes in transport and urban mobility markets. However, future city trajectories that could enable multiple societal benefits from low carbon and zero-emissions solutions in a cost-efficient way are still uncertain. To the best of our knowledge, the research reported in this paper represents the first attempt to assess trends in the use of disruptive passenger urban transport solutions in Lisbon, while providing insights on the mechanisms by which stakeholders (public transport operators, new mobility providers such as car-sharing, infrastructure managers, etc.) management activities are open to change, cooperation and can foster strategic innovation towards decarbonizing mobility pathways. The pilot study supported by the Lisbon City Council comprised the former application of the "Benefits Realization Management" approach in the context of urban passenger mobility. Semi-structured surveys were implemented to a multimodal network of stakeholders. Finally, the "Benefits Dependency Roadmap" were derived as a strategic planning tool.