Runoff and Sediment Flux on the North Coast of KwaZulu-Natal: Counter-Acting Beach Erosion from Rising Seas?

A remote analysis of coastal sedimentation in northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, describes how summer runoff and winter wave-action operate within a highly variable climate. Despite rising sea levels, the sediment flux can sustain beaches under certain conditions. Daily satellite red-band reflectivity and ocean–atmosphere reanalysis datasets were studied over the period of 2018–2025. Statistical results indicate that streamflow discharges are spread northward by oblique wave-driven currents. Sediment concentrations peak during late winter (>1 mg/L, May–October) when deep turbulent mixing (>40 m) mobilizes sand from the seabed. A case study from September 2021 revealed that ridging high-pressure/cut-off low weather patterns can simultaneously increase streamflow, wave energy, and wind power, creating a surf-zone sediment conveyor along the coast of northern KZN. Long-term climate diagnostics from 1981 to 2025 reveal upward trends in coastal runoff, vegetation, and turbidity (0.29 σ/yr) that point to an increasingly vigorous water cycle. The warming of the southeast Atlantic intensifies the sub-tropical upper-level westerlies and late winter storms over southeast Africa. These processes occur in 5–8 year cycles and drive shoreline advance and retreat, from accretion ~1 T/m and storm surge inundations up to 5.5 m. Using Digital Earth, it was noted that ~1/4 of beaches around Africa are gaining sediment while ~1/3 are eroding. Although remote information could not close the sediment budget, realistic estimates of long-shore transport in the surf-zone (>104 kg/yr/m) and on the beach (>103 kg/yr/m) were calculated. These provide an emerging explanation for the resilience of northern KZN beaches, as sea levels rise at a rate of 0.6 cm/yr.