EXPLOSIVE PRICE CHARACTERISTIC IN HOUSING MARKET: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON EMERGING ECONOMIES

Housing price changes can be driven by both fundamental factors and speculative dynamics. This study examines explosive price movements in the housing markets of the “Fragile Five” economies—Türkiye, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and India—under recent global shocks such as the pandemic and energy crises. The analysis covers quarterly data from Q1 2010 to Q4 2024, allowing the study to capture both pre- and post-pandemic market period. Although these countries share similar structural vulnerabilities, they adopt different macroeconomic and structural policies. Therefore, a comparative analysis of asset prices across selected countries can provide useful insights for both policymakers and market participants. By applying the generalized supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test in a comparative framework, the paper contributes to the literature as one of the first studies to provide a systematic comparative GSADF analysis across major emerging markets. Unlike earlier research that focused on single countries or advanced economies, it provides updated comparative evidence on major emerging economies. The results indicate that housing price bubbles emerged in one period in Brazil and South Africa, and in three distinct episodes in Türkiye. Comparative evidence reveals a divergent pattern across countries: Türkiye’s accommodative monetary stance in the post-pandemic period fueled exuberant increases in real estate prices, Brazil’s relatively tighter policy framework contained speculative pressures and kept price dynamics more moderate, while South Africa’s contractionary conditions signaled early signs of a downward adjustment in the housing market. The findings suggest that the divergence in housing price dynamics across emerging markets is shaped not only by monetary policy responses but also by broader structural and regulatory frameworks that influence speculative pressures. A broader mix of macroprudential tools, strengthened regulatory oversight, and structural measures aimed at expanding housing supply and improving market transparency is essential to mitigate bubble risks and support sustainable housing market stability.